影響因素分析

一、有利因素

(一)政(zheng)府采(cai)取多(duo)項辦(ban)法促進新(xin)能源消(xiao)納

政府為促(cu)進新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納，一方(fang)面要(yao)(yao)加大(da)可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)本地(di)的(de)消納力(li)度(du)，另(ling)一方(fang)面要(yao)(yao)擴(kuo)大(da)跨(kua)區(qu)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)規模。國(guo)家能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)局要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)，新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)、甘肅、山西(xi)、內蒙古(gu)、遼(liao)寧、吉林、黑龍(long)江、河北(bei)等(deng)地(di)結(jie)合北(bei)方(fang)地(di)區(qu)清潔取暖(nuan)工作，盡(jin)快(kuai)擴(kuo)大(da)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)清潔取暖(nuan)規模，通過(guo)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)業(ye)與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)企(qi)業(ye)及(ji)各類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)取暖(nuan)用(yong)戶進行電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市場化交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)，實(shi)現符合清潔低碳發展(zhan)方(fang)向的(de)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)取暖(nuan)。有(you)關省級能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)管理部(bu)門要(yao)(yao)指導地(di)方(fang)政府組(zu)織風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)企(qi)業(ye)，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)企(qi)業(ye)及(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)機構平臺支(zhi)持下建立風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)合作機制(zhi)。新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)、甘肅、內蒙古(gu)等(deng)限(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)嚴重地(di)區(qu)要(yao)(yao)督促(cu)自備(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠企(qi)業(ye)參與系(xi)統調峰運行，消納可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，通過(guo)合法合規的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)直接交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)或置換(huan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，擴(kuo)大(da)企(qi)業(ye)自備(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠消納可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量。四川、云(yun)南、廣西(xi)要(yao)(yao)通過(guo)多(duo)種途徑推(tui)進本地(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代，提升本地(di)消納可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)能(neng)(neng)力(li)。

同(tong)時，國家能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)局還強調，各區(qu)(qu)(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)要(yao)加強省(sheng)間互濟和跨(kua)(kua)(kua)省(sheng)備(bei)(bei)用(yong)(yong)(yong)共享，統(tong)一調用(yong)(yong)(yong)區(qu)(qu)(qu)域內的(de)調峰(feng)資源(yuan)，協(xie)同(tong)消納(na)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)企(qi)業要(yao)挖掘哈密(mi)—鄭州、寧夏—浙江、酒泉(quan)—湖(hu)南等跨(kua)(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)輸(shu)送(song)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)，并優先(xian)輸(shu)送(song)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)。有關(guan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)監管機構要(yao)對(dui)跨(kua)(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)外(wai)送(song)通(tong)道(dao)中(zhong)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)占比(bi)情況按(an)年(nian)度(du)進行監測評價。國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公司、南方電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)公司、內蒙古電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)公司等要(yao)會(hui)同(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)交易(yi)機構，擴大跨(kua)(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現貨交易(yi)消納(na)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)。具備(bei)(bei)消納(na)可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)東中(zhong)部地方政府和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)企(qi)業要(yao)把本(ben)(ben)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)減少(shao)燃煤量與消納(na)區(qu)(qu)(qu)外(wai)輸(shu)入可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)相結合，主動與跨(kua)(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)輸(shu)送(song)通(tong)道(dao)的(de)送(song)端(duan)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)政府及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)企(qi)業對(dui)接，將本(ben)(ben)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)騰(teng)出的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市場空(kong)間優先(xian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)于(yu)擴大可再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消納(na)利用(yong)(yong)(yong)。

(二(er))政府將加快電力(li)市場化改革步伐

為了更好地(di)發展(zhan)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)產業，政(zheng)府(fu)明確(que)表態，要(yao)完善(shan)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)機制，堅持市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)化改(gai)革方向，進一步完善(shan)可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)力綠色證書(shu)交易機制，推進實(shi)(shi)行可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)力配額(e)制，加快建設電(dian)力市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)體(ti)系(xi)，完善(shan)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)交易規(gui)則，強(qiang)化市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)監管，實(shi)(shi)現新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)和可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)從靠政(zheng)府(fu)到靠市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)的轉變。

二、不利因素

(一)財政補貼依賴大

現在(zai)可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)存(cun)在(zai)兩(liang)個主(zhu)要問題，一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)個是(shi)(shi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)資金(jin)存(cun)在(zai)缺口，可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源電價(jia)附加征收(shou)(shou)額度不(bu)夠，滿足不(bu)了可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源的發展需求(qiu)，2015年(nian)，可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)資金(jin)缺口達300億元以上。另(ling)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)個就是(shi)(shi)補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)拖欠時間(jian)長，發放的程序復雜。首先電網(wang)方面得統計可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源的發電量(liang)有(you)多少，補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)金(jin)額有(you)多大，然后上報財政部，財政部逐一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)核實后再發下(xia)來(lai)(lai)(lai)，這一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)折騰就是(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)年(nian)半載，導(dao)致補(bu)(bu)貼(tie)資金(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)邊是(shi)(shi)收(shou)(shou)不(bu)上來(lai)(lai)(lai)，另(ling)一(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)邊是(shi)(shi)發不(bu)下(xia)去，給可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源企業帶來(lai)(lai)(lai)現金(jin)流(liu)上的壓力(li)。

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